How to Topple Maduro

U.S. policy toward Venezuela is hard to decipher. A powerful armada has been assembled in the Caribbean, far larger than is needed just to shoot out of the water a dozen or so small boats carrying drugs. But ending drug trafficking from Venezuela remains the stated goal, and “regime change” is never spoken of. 

In an article in Foreign Affairs, I argue that without removing the Maduro regime, the twin U.S. goals of ending mass migration from Venezuela and drug trafficking are unattainable. That is because the Maduro regime survives in good part on the revenues of drug trafficking, and its brutal repression and destruction of the Venezuelan economy guarantee continuing migration. While President Trump might, in a few months, withdraw the ships and claim victory because maritime drug trafficking is down, that will be no victory: when the ships are gone the trafficking will resume.  

The article suggests that the United States should move forward, including striking regime targets inside Venezuela, bringing down the regime. Then the elected president Edmundo Gonzalez can take office and the reconstruction of Venezuela can begin. Because Venezuela had 50 years of democracy before Maduro and Hugo Chavez, had an educated middle class, has a strong democratic opposition movement, and has none of the divisions that plague countries like Iraq or Syria, there is reason for optimism that restoration of democracy is possible.

As I wrote in Foreign Affairs, 

Venezuela is a far better candidate for regime change and a return of democracy than were countries such as Afghanistan,Iraq, and Syria. After bringing down the dictator Marcos Pérez Jimenez in 1958, Venezuelans enjoyed two generations of democracy and built a large and educated middle class until Hugo Chávez and Maduro brought repression and ruin.The country has no significant ethnic or religious divisions.It has a long tradition of close financial, commercial, social, educational, and military contacts with the United States.It is the alienation from the United States in the last 20 years—and the links to China, Cuba,Iran, and Russia—that is anomalous. Rebuilding democratic institutions, clearing out the Cuban influences in the intelligence service, and attacking the country’s vast corruption will take years of hard work. But that is what a huge majority of Venezuelans voted for last year, despite all the efforts of the Maduro regime to intimidate them and to rig the election.

Again, the article is found here.